Το νήμα του ιού Έμπολα

[MNP-10]

Το καλο με τον Εμπολα ειναι οτι παρα το οτι εχει 70% death rate, σου δινει και 2η ευκαιρια

http://allafrica.com/stories/201409240829.html

Two Ebola patients, who died of the virus in separate communities in Nimba County have reportedly resurrected in the county.The victims, both females, believed to be in their 60s and 40s respectively, died of the Ebola virus recently in Hope Village Community and the Catholic Community in Ganta, Nimba.

But to the amazement of residents and onlookers on Monday, the deceased reportedly regained life in total disbelief. The NewDawn Nimba County correspondent said the late Dorris Quoi of Hope Village Community and the second victim only identified as Ma Kebeh, said to be in her late 60s, were about to be taken for burial when they resurrected.

Ma Kebeh had reportedly been in door for two nights without food and medication before her alleged death. Nimba County has had bazaar news of Ebola cases with a native doctor from the county, who claimed that he could cure infected victims, dying of the virus himself last week.

News of the resurrection of the two victims has reportedly created panic in residents of Hope Village Community and Ganta at large, with some citizens describing Dorris Quoi as a ghost, who shouldn't live among them. Since the Ebola outbreak in Nimba County, this is the first incident of dead victims resurrecting.

[8anos]

ναι αναστήθηκαν, προφανώς κανείς δεν τις πλησίασε και τις θεώρησαν νεκρές κοιτάζοντας απο μακριά, όταν οι δυστυχείς ανέκαμψαν άρχισαν όλοι να τρέχουν...

στα θετικά:
Νιγηρία: Κανένας ασθενής υπό παρακολούθηση για τον ιό Έμπολα
Εχουν όλοι ολοκληρώσει την υποχρεωτική περίοδο «απομόνωσης»

- - - Updated - - -

ύποπτο κρούσμα στην Κωνσταντινούπολη, Νιγηριανός επιχειρηματίας



δεν έχουν ενημερώσει την αγγλική ιστοσελίδα, η ειδηση στα τουρκικα

ενω πλοίο βρισκεται σε καραντίνα έξω απο το λιμάνι της Οδησσού

Spoiler:

US government forecasts Ebola cases may reach 1.4 million in 4 months
KIEV, September 25. /ITAR-TASS/. Ukraine’s Health Ministry does not exclude that the crew of the MV Western Copenhagen cargo vessel, which arrived from Guinea on Tuesday and is moored ten miles from the Ukrainian Black Sea port of Odessa, may have the Ebola virus.
“These are still suspicions as it could be malaria as well,” ministry’s spokesperson told ITAR-TASS. “We have no verifications which we will get only after tests are carried out by the sanitary and epidemiological inspection on water transport.”
Earlier, the chief sanitary inspector of the Ukrainian sanitary and epidemiological inspection of the Black Sea basin, Nikolay Golubyatnikov, told the Ukrainian Vesti portal that on September 18 a crewman of the Western Copenhagen who was showing symptoms of Ebola was taken by boat to hospital in Italy’s Sicily.
“We are expecting his medical tests by Saturday,” Golubyatnikov said adding that after the results became known, Ukrainian medics would be delivered onboard and would take all necessary measures.




UN to set up special mission to fight Ebola outbreak
The cargo ship that had left Guinea was carrying 20 tons of bauxite to a Ukrainian plant located in the Black Sea port of Nikolayev.
After the crewman was hospitalized in Sicily, the vessel passed through the Bosporus Strait and moored near Odessa on September 23.
The deadly Ebola virus is raging in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, with several cases registered in Senegal and Nigeria. Since February, over 5,800 people have contracted the disease and the death toll topped 3,000.

- - - Updated - - -

ανοιχτή επιστολή επιστημόνων στις ευρωπαϊκές κυβερνήσεις για τον Εμπολα που δημοσιεύτηκε σήμερα στο "The Lancet"

Ebola: an open letter to European governments

Spoiler:

Jose M Martin-Moreno aEmail Address, Walter Ricciardi b, Vesna Bjegovic-Mikanovic c, Peggy Maguire d, Martin McKee e, on behalf of 44 signatories

After months of inaction and neglect from the international community, the Ebola epidemic in west Africa has now spiralled utterly out of control. Today, the virus is a threat not only to the countries where the outbreak has overwhelmed the capacity of national health systems, but also to the entire world. We urge our governments to mobilise all possible resources to assist west Africa in controlling this horrific epidemic. Based on our expertise in public health and emergency response, we believe the following measures would be particularly effective.

First, with regards to human resources, given the huge need for trained health-care professionals in west Africa, we urge European governments to create mechanisms that allow professionals working in public health-care systems to volunteer for temporary leave (with hazard pay) to contribute to the epidemic control efforts in the region. European countries can and should step up to contribute in line with their capacity and potential.

Second, regarding technical and infrastructure support, there is a huge need for field laboratories, epidemiological and microbiological surveillance resources, diagnostic equipment, and mobile communications software and technology. These needs go hand in hand with basic infrastructure requirements such as electric generators, clean water, and fuel. European countries have the resources and the knowledge to deploy them.

Third, with respect to medical supplies, health-care professionals and communities are in desperate need of personal protective equipment as well as disinfectants, such as soap and chlorine. While health-care centres should have priority, they are completely overwhelmed, and many infected people are receiving care at home. European countries should actively seek to procure and distribute protective clothing to all health-care professionals on the ground as well as to communities in need.

Finally, with regards to transport and logistics, governments should go beyond requesting private companies to resume travel to the affected regions (a measure that is not only epidemiologically unnecessary, but also counterproductive) and create strong incentives for them to do so, while also mobilising military and civil transport by air, sea, and land to ship food, supplies, and personnel to the affected regions.

If we aim for our action to be truly effective, Europe's strategic approach to responding is just as important as its financial and material commitments. We call on our governments to take an active and dedicated role, in partnership with west African countries and the UN, to ensure that the response over the next months is managed transparently and effectively, and in ways that support complementary goals for human and economic development in the region.

First, aid should be channelled to organisations already on the ground, particularly those led or primarily staffed by west Africans. This includes national, public health systems as well as non-governmental organisations. Médecins Sans Frontières has been playing an important part, but groups run by west Africans are in the best position to engage local support, act as cultural mediators between international actors and local populations, and build capacity among community stakeholders.

Second, the response should catalyse the link between health and development. The Ebola epidemic has eco-social origins and societal costs that go far beyond the health effects, so all possible efforts should be made to ensure that international donations support—never replace—local economies and social systems.

Third, built-in mechanisms for governance, monitoring, and evaluation should be established. European governments have an obligation, both to their own constituencies and to the communities in need, to deter (and punish) waste and graft so that scant resources are used as effectively as possible. In light of the €97·5 million that the European Commission has announced in budget support measures to Sierra Leone and Liberia, the immediate relevance of solid accountability measures is clear.

Finally, affected populations should benefit from their contributions to research. Those in the affected countries will contribute to the discovery of effective drugs and vaccines and to models of care as researchers, field workers, and, above all, participants in research.

Since Ban Ki-moon entreated the international community to help on Sept 5, 2014, several countries have stepped forward with donations, equipment, and personnel. This global response is long overdue, but we fully expect all our European democracies (predicated on principles of solidarity, equity, and social protections) to make up for lost time with celerity, determination, and commitment. The Ebola epidemic represents a public health imperative; unchecked, it might very well become a geopolitical crisis.

[lewton]

To Vanity Fair έχει εξαιρετικά λεπτομερές άρθρο για το πως ξεκίνησε αλλά και λεπτομέρειες για το γιατί άργησε 3 μήνες η ταυτοποίηση του ιού (πχ το ότι έβγαιναν πολλά θετικά test για χολέρα).
http://www.vanityfair.com/politics/2...ic-containment

[MNP-10]

"As the primary October harvest approaches, all eyes are on the ongoing spread of the virus, the restricted mobility of the migrant workforce, and the transport of the commodity itself throughout and out of Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana, Laiskonis said."

"About 70 percent of the world's cocoa supply comes from West African nations, with Cote d’Ivoire and Ghana accounting for over 55 percent of global cocoa supply, according to IBISWorld chocolate analyst Amal Ahmad."

...οκ, τι θα κανουμε χωρις σοκολατες και κακαο? Ειμαστε σοβαροι?

+πρωτο κρουσμα Εμπολα στις ΗΠΑ... γλεντι... παμε για παγκοσμια εκκαθαριση

[8anos]

+πρωτο κρουσμα Εμπολα στις ΗΠΑ... γλεντι... παμε για παγκοσμια εκκαθαριση

θα δοκιμαστούν στην πράξη τα συστήματα υγείας και πρόληψης.
Η εμπειρία απο την Νιγηρία και την Σενεγάλη δείχνει οτι μπορούν να περιορίσουν και τελικά να σταματήσουν την εξάπλωση, βέβαια πάντα υπάρχει και ο παράγοντας τύχη. Μπορεί να κλήρωσε το λόττο στους Αμερικάνους.
Μέσα στο επόμενο 20ημερο θα ξέρουμε.

[MNP-10]

Γραφει ενας Αμερικανος (presumably γιατρος αν τον πιστεψουμε)

Guys listen, this shit is scary. I get it, ok? I do. The human population of this world has always been kept in check by viruses, or some other method of sheer destruction. The Flu, Polio, Smallpox, you name it, these things have a purpose in nature. They keep populations under control.

Since the dawn of the industrial age we began to outsmart them all. We Vaccinate against the flu, we all but eradicated Polio in this country. We had beaten our enemies into near submission, and as a result, the worlds population has exploded. But our Genius is beginning to catch up with us. Anti-biotic resistant bacteria is on the rise, the flu is devising new ways to counter attack our defenses. And Ebola, well, lets just say it's doing what all viruses do. It's trying to survive, it's trying to find a way to use our own immune system against us. Think about this for a minute...

The Flu infects you, your body goes into defensive mode, realizing that it must expel the invader. So your own body fills your lungs with mucus and fluid, which forces you to cough. This is the real genius of the flu. It actually depends on your immune response to spread itself. And it doesn't have much time to do it either. Because your body begins to increase it's own temperature. Yes, having a fever is an immune response, not caused by the flu, rather it is literally your body attempting to make you so hot that the protein coat protecting the flu virus breaks down, allowing your white cells to attack.

This is what all viruses do. ALL of them. They find a way to exploit your natural immune responses to propagate themselves.

Ebola.... once just a hemorrhagic fever on steroids, now is a bona-fide menace. I work in a hospital laboratory at a major hospital in a major Metro Area. My wife works clinical micro for the same company. I'm very well versed in just about everything a STAT lab in a hospital can, and does do. My wife on the other hand, actually majored in micro, with emphasis on virology. So I wanted you all to know a few things about this outbreak that became apparent to us as it began to spread.

#1. Something has changed. This virus used to have a much shorter incubation period. And it would kill within a week. The mortality rate was much higher once upon a time. However, this is not the case anymore. Based on the sheer number of infected, the virus it seems, may have found a way to transmit itself easier. Typically when a virus "evolves" it gains in one area, while giving ground in another. It makes sense to me that Ebola gave up alot of it's lethality, for the ability to spread itself easier, and incubate much, much longer.

#2. Africa is a mess. There is no way to tell how many are infected. Once upon a time Ebola would strike a village and wipe everyone out, and that was it. It would kill so fast that it could not spread out of the hotzone. Because of what I said above that is not the case anymore. On a continent where borders still mean very little to the native population, it is a scary mix. Even if the CDC or the WHO wanted to get accurate numbers, it would be hopeless due to the unknown number or people that distrust western medicine, refuse to get help, or wander around from village to village. The infrastructure simply does not have the same capabilities we do in the west.

#3. Even in the United States, out of all the various hospitals I have worked at, there is no hope of containing anything like this. One of the largest hospitals I worked at only had two reverse flow isolation rooms. TWO, let that sink in for a minute. If this thing goes as bad as some think it will, we are, quite literally, screwed. Patients only show up to the hospital when they go symptomatic. So by the time they get there, they've already infected their entire family, their work group, and anyone they got within a few feet of on the way to the hospital. When they get there the ER nurses would treat it either like Flu, or Sepsis. But the whole time the patient is infecting all of them. And all of them, in turn, begin to infect everyone else in the exact same way. If this is as virulent as the WHO thinks it might be, by the time people realize what is going on, there will be more sick people than there would be beds available at every hospital in the US combined.

#4. Testing blood for anything is not as simple as looking under a microscope. And hospital labs are not set up for exotic virology. We run basic Chemistries, Cardiac enzymes, blood counts, sed rates, drug levels, bacterial cultures, all the basic hands on shit. The kind of things that old people usually present for, blood loss, infection, and cardiac events. Anything exotic gets sent out. Sometimes to the State lab, most of the time specimens get sent across the country to Quest Diagnostics, or to other organizations actually set up for it. Your average city hospital is pitifully, laughably, not ready for anything of this nature. Sure, running a CBC can tell if you are dehydrated, it can tell of you are loosing blood, it can tell if you are fighting "something" off. It just can't tell what. A sed rate can determine if you have excess inflammation, but it can't tell you why. A Lactic Acid level can indicate Sepsis, but it can't tell you from what. The point is, at the early stages of an outbreak, people will get treated for run of the mill things. Because nothing a hospital can test immediately will be able to tell anyone that you are carrying the most deadly hemorrhagic fever currently known. Honestly, if a person came into a busy ER with a fever, the triage nurse would put them in the waiting room until a non urgent room opened up in the back. They simply have no way to know who is carrying what.

I'm not saying we're all gonna die. This thing could fizzle out. And everything could be fine. What I am trying to illustrate here is that just because a lab exists in a hospital, does not mean that it can tell you everything. There are triage algorithms that work for everyday field medicine, but nothing for an outbreak. Thinking that living in a developed nation will curb the spread is ridiculous. If anything, it makes it worse. Our commute, our workplaces, our homes, our methods of entertainment, all of those things that we love so much about living in the the west, are the things that viruses depend on to spread.

If this virus truly has found a way to transmit easier, the healthcare system would be completely overloaded with something they simply can not handle.

Anyway, I'm not trying to scare anyone, I just hope people can be realistic about the capabilities of hospital containment, hospital laboratory testing, and the fact that the healthcare system, in ANY country, could not handle a massive outbreak.

So don't expect miracles from front line hospital staff, we don't have the tools, and we certainly do not have the manpower. Ask anyone in the medical field how much overtime they could work if they felt like it, don't even get me started on how thinly stretched people in the industry are. Though I suppose if this does turn into something, that will become apparent very, very fast.

Good luck, don't freak out, wash your hands, be prepared, hug your kids.

That is all.

[PetrosK]

Δεν έχω άμεση σχέση με το αντικείμενο, αλλά από τα χρόνια της Σχολής και από όσα έμαθα έκτοτε, σε γενικές γραμμές είναι σωστός.

Ειδικά σε ότι αφορά στα διαγνωστικά, απόλυτα σωστός.

Αυτό που δεν αναφέρει (όχι στη σωστή του βάση), είναι το παρακάτω: "Typically when a virus "evolves" it gains in one area, while giving ground in another. It makes sense to me that Ebola gave up alot of it's lethality, for the ability to spread itself easier, and incubate much, much longer."

Πάντα, όταν ένας ιός μεταλλάσσεται, κάτι κερδίζει - κάτι χάνει (αυτό, σωστά, γράφει ο τύπος). Συνήθως, όταν ένας ιός γίνεται πιο μολυσματικός (πιο εύκολο να μεταδοθεί, χοντρικά -όχι ακριβής απόδοση), χάνει σε "ισχύ" (σε θνησιμότητα αν θέλετε, πόσοι δλδ θα καταλήξουν σε σχέση με αυτούς που προσβλήθηκαν/νόσησαν).

Συνεπώς, όσο πιο εύκολο γίνεται για τον Ebola να μεταδοθεί (όσο πιο ανθεκτικός γίνει στις περιβαλλοντικές συνθήκες -ο HIV/ιός που προκαλεί το AIDS πχ, εκτός ανθρωπίνου σώματος, αντέχει κάπου 10'- αν αποκτήσει νέους τρόπους μετάδοσης -airborne-, αν "κρύβεται" καλύτερα -μεγαλύτερος χρόνος επώασης -κλπ), τόσο ευκολότερο γίνεται (συνήθως) για τον οργανισμό να τον καταπολεμήσει.

Είναι (ας πούμε, όχι απόλυτα) μια αντιστρόφως ανάλογη σχέση αυτή μεταξύ της λοιμογόνου δύναμης και της θνησιμότητας, κάτι σαν "δεικλίδα ασφαλείας".

Επίσης "φιλοσοφικά", ο ιός (κάθε ιός) δεν έχει σκοπό να σκοτώσει (αυτή είναι απλά μια "παρενέργεια" της δράσης του). Ο ιός σα μόνο "σκοπό" έχει την επιβίωσή του. Ένας ιός με θνησιμόητα 100% (όσοι προσβληθούν & νοσούν, πεθαίνουν), απόλυτη λοιμογόνο δύναμη (όσοι έρθουν σε επαφή -οσοδήποτε περιορισμένη, θα νοσήσουν) και εξαιρετικά εύκολη μεταδοτικότητα σε συνδυασμό με "λογικό" χρόνο επώασης σύντομα θα εξαλειφθεί αφού πολύ απλά δε θα έχει ξενιστές (υποψήφια θύματα, αν θέλετε) για να μολύνει και να αναπαραχθεί/επιβιώσει.

Αυτά, πολύ χοντρικά.

Έχουμε ελπίδες.

[KLG]

Οσες φορές έχω δει ή έχω ακουσει το "it makes sense to me" σε επιστημονική ομιλία ήταν bullshiting για να καλύψει κάποιο αμφιλεγομενο αποτελεσμα. Just saying χωρίς να έχω γνωση στο αντικείμενο και βαζοντας σε αντιπαραβολή το πιο κατηγορηματικό "highly unlikely" : http://www.scientificamerican.com/ar...l-go-airborne/

[Asdic]

το πρωτο αμφιλεγομενο ( και ισως θετικο κρουσμα ) το μετεφεραν οι ιδιοι οι Αμερικανοι στις ΗΠΑ πριν περιπου 1 μηνα, οταν βρεθηκαν θετικα 2 ατομα αποστολης βοηθειας απο Αμερικη και μεταφερθηκαν σε καποιο νοσοκομειο εκει.

[JULIANIK]

το πρωτο αμφιλεγομενο ( και ισως θετικο κρουσμα ) το μετεφεραν οι ιδιοι οι Αμερικανοι στις ΗΠΑ πριν περιπου 1 μηνα....

Τα 2 άτομα αυτά πήγαν στην αμερική για συνέχιση πειραματικής θεραπείας,
δε μπορούν να θεωρηθούν ως τα πρώτα κρούσματα που πέρασαν στις ΗΠΑ.
Το κρούσμα προχτες ήταν όντως το πρώτο.
Σχετικά: BBC Ebola virus The Search for a Cure @ 46':49"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?featur...iNP5xWE#t=2809

[Asdic]

οκ δεν το ηξερα αυτο. ειπαν σε ποια πολη εμφανιστηκε το κρουσμα ?

[8anos]

στο Dallas

- - - Updated - - -

είναι απίστευτο πως την παίξανε οι Αμερικάνοι, αφήσανε των άνθρωπο μέσα στην κοινότητα, να είναι μεταδοτικός για 4 μέρες.

[Asdic]

και υστερα μιλανε για την υποαναπτυκτη Αφρικη .....

[cool11]

Τι ειδους θανατηφορος ιος ειναι αυτος;
Υπηρχε παντα ή μονο τα τελευταια χρονια;
Πως εξαπλωνεται;

[KLG]

Τι ειδους θανατηφορος ιος ειναι αυτος;
Υπηρχε παντα ή μονο τα τελευταια χρονια;
Πως εξαπλωνεται;

Δες το πρώτο μήνυμα του νήματος. Απαντάει σε όλα τα ερωτήματα σου.